The Buyer's Guide to a Track Record
You're the buyer here, so act like one. Before you trust anybody's track record — ours included — there are four questions that separate a real edge from a highlight reel. Most services fail at least one of them, and they're counting on you never asking. So ask. Here's the checklist, and exactly how we answer it.
The oldest trick in the book is showing you only the picks that worked and quietly burying the ones that didn't. That's survivorship bias, and it makes a coin-flip look like a genius. A real record can't quietly drop its losers. We publish the full set — every signal and every model portfolio, winners and losers, kept in the record as they land rather than curated after the fact.
"Up 40%" is a number designed to impress you until you ask the only follow-up that matters: up versus what? If the S&P did the same thing, you took the risk for nothing. The honest benchmark isn't your return, it's your return above the index — that gap is the alpha, the score that actually counts. Everything here is measured against the S&P, not against zero.
A track record that keeps the good calls and drops the bad ones isn't a record — it's marketing. The losers have to count, because in real life your losers cost you real money. Judge any service on what it did including the names it got wrong. Ours includes them, every one, in the same number you see for the wins.
A static "past performance" PDF is easy to cherry-pick from a single lucky stretch. A live, continuously-updated record is much harder to fake, because tomorrow's results land in it whether you like them or not. That's the version you want — one that can't quietly stop updating the day it turns ugly. Ours runs in the open and updates as the trades close, good days and bad.
Aim those four questions at every service in your inbox and watch most of them go quiet. We built the track record page to answer all four out loud — full set, versus the index, losers included, live — because the only reason to hide from those questions is not having an edge. We'll take that bet in public. That's one more thing you won't find in most inboxes.