LLY — the engine's Play of the Day, fully scored
On Tuesday, September 29, 2026, LLY scored in the 99th percentile of Wall Street Analyst's 15-dimension scoring engine with a STRONG BUY signal, at $1185.54 at publication, on a suggested horizon of 1–2 weeks. The full breakdown below is the engine's actual evidence, published the day of the call and graded in public afterward.
LLY sits in the 99th percentile with a HIGH-confidence STRONG BUY driven by exceptional earnings quality (83.1) and a perfect av_earnings_momentum reading — seven consecutive beats averaging +10.9% surprise with accelerating revisions. Options flow scores 80 on unusual call activity and 13 bullish call sweeps, while fundamentals show explosive growth (revenue +50%, earnings +95%) and elite 83% gross margins. An insider cluster buy from five insiders totaling roughly $176M reinforces the setup, even against offsetting insider sells.
This is a catalyst archetype with edge concentrated in a 1-2 week window ahead of the October 29 earnings date, entering near $1185.54 with price above key moving averages and a fresh MACD bullish crossover. The horizon is short and event-driven, not a buy-and-hold.
A break below the recent support around the $1114-1122 range would negate the technical setup, and any cooling in the unusual call flow or a reversal in the positive revision momentum would remove the core edge. The rich P/E of 40.2 and F-rated value leave little cushion if sentiment turns.
The full case — all 15 dimensions
Every dimension the engine scored that day, with the actual evidence behind each number — including the ones that argue against the play. The twelve weighted dimensions come first; anything marked a supporting input is scored and shown, but reaches the composite through a capped confirmation bonus rather than a weighted share.
- Strong beat streak (7 consecutive quarters)
- Positive revision momentum (+0.40)
- Large average earnings surprise (+10.9%)
- Stable positive EPS estimates
- Unusual CALL activity (32 flags)
- Bullish sweep activity (13 call sweeps)
- Expensive P/E (40.2)
- Strong growth (72%)
- Excellent margins (33.5%)
- Strong ROE (92.6%)
- MACD bullish crossover
- Price above key moving averages
- Strong positive news sentiment (0.18)
- Strong analyst buy consensus (79%)
- Reddit mentions via ApeWisdom: 1 in 24h (vs 1 the day before; per-post sentiment n/a)
- StockTwits bullish (bull/bear ratio: 8.0)
- Moderate social media volume (31 total messages)
- Ticker is trending on StockTwits
- Partial coverage: scored on 50% of social sources (confidence scaled accordingly)
- Analyst target $1343 vs $1185.54 at scoring time (+13% implied)
- Near 52-week high (82th percentile)
- Insider selling activity (4 sells)
- Held by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett), Bridgewater Associates (Dalio), Renaissance Technologies (Simons)
- High insider filing activity (7 Form 4s in 30d)
- Quant Grade: B- (60/100)
- Value: F
- Growth: A+
- Profitability: A+
- Momentum: B+
- Eps Revisions: A+
- Revenue +50% (explosive)
- Earnings +95%
- Elite gross margin 83%
- 7Q consecutive earnings beats (avg 15.8% surprise)
- Earnings surprises accelerating
- Insider cluster BUY (cluster feed, 12d window): 5 insiders, $176,297,947
- 7 consecutive earnings beats
- avg surprise +10.9%
- EPS trending up
- Scope: OpenInsider Form 4 filings, last 90 days. Starts from a neutral 50 baseline; drivers below adjust it
- 4 C-suite buy(s) totaling $2,828,655 (+25 pts)
- Cluster buy: 8 distinct insiders bought (+20 pts)
- 5 buy(s) >= $500K (total $3,839,743) (+15 pts)
- 7 distinct insiders selling (-20 pts)
- 5 C-suite sell(s) (-20 pts)
A brief like this is generated from the engine's output every trading day. Today's Play is free — get it on the Play of the Day page or read how the 15 dimensions work.
The Play of the Day is the output of a quantitative scoring model, published for educational and informational purposes — it is not personalized investment advice, and Wall Street Analyst is not a registered investment advisor. Markets carry risk; past results don't guarantee future ones. Every decision is yours.