Play of the Day
One pick per trading day — the highest-conviction name in our 15-dimension scoring engine, with the full breakdown, a hold horizon, and exactly what would break the thesis. Every Play is logged the moment it publishes and its outcome lands in the public archive below, winners and losers. On days nothing clears the bar, we say so instead of forcing a pick.
LLY
99 / 100 percentile$1251.73 at publicationLLY sits in the 99th percentile with a STRONG BUY driven by elite options flow (85) showing 28 unusual call flags and 4 bullish sweeps on 68,081 volume, plus strong technicals (80) with a MACD crossover, price above key moving averages, and a 1.9x volume surge. Earnings quality (83.4) and av earnings momentum (100) reinforce the case with 7 consecutive beats averaging +10.9% surprise, accelerating revisions, and explosive growth (revenue +50%, earnings +95%). The name also carries an insider cluster buy of roughly $176M across 5 insiders in a 12-day window.
This is a catalyst setup heading into the October 29 earnings print, with the edge concentrated around that event window and a suggested hold of 1-2 weeks. Entry near 1251.73 places price in the 95th percentile against the 52-week high, so the thesis leans on the beat streak and call-flow positioning carrying through the report.
A disappointing or in-line October 29 print that breaks the 7-quarter beat streak would invalidate the catalyst thesis, as would a loss of the moving-average structure or a reversal in the unusual call flow. Note the mixed smart-money signal: 7 distinct insiders selling and 5 C-suite sells offset the cluster buying, and the stretched 42.6 P/E leaves little cushion if growth decelerates.
The full case — all 15 dimensions
Every dimension the engine scored, with the actual evidence behind each number — including the ones that argue against the play. The twelve weighted dimensions come first; anything marked a supporting input is scored and shown, but reaches the composite through a capped confirmation bonus rather than a weighted share.
- Unusual CALL activity (28 flags)
- Bullish sweep activity (4 call sweeps)
- Very high options volume (68,081)
- Strong beat streak (7 consecutive quarters)
- Positive revision momentum (+0.42)
- Large average earnings surprise (+10.9%)
- Stable positive EPS estimates
- MACD bullish crossover
- Price above key moving averages
- Volume surge (1.9x avg)
- Near 52-week high (95th percentile)
- Expensive P/E (42.6)
- Strong growth (72%)
- Excellent margins (33.5%)
- Strong ROE (92.6%)
- Strong positive news sentiment (0.19)
- Strong analyst buy consensus (79%)
- Insider selling activity (4 sells)
- Held by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett), Bridgewater Associates (Dalio), Renaissance Technologies (Simons)
- Insider filing activity (4 Form 4s in 30d)
- Reddit mentions via ApeWisdom: 0 in 24h (vs 0 the day before; per-post sentiment n/a)
- StockTwits bullish (bull/bear ratio: 3.25)
- Moderate social media volume (30 total messages)
- Ticker is trending on StockTwits
- Partial coverage: scored on 50% of social sources (confidence scaled accordingly)
- Quant Grade: B- (60/100)
- Value: F
- Growth: A+
- Profitability: A+
- Momentum: B+
- Eps Revisions: A+
- Revenue +50% (explosive)
- Earnings +95%
- Elite gross margin 83%
- Analyst target $1346 vs $1267.23 at scoring time (+6% implied)
- 7Q consecutive earnings beats (avg 15.8% surprise)
- Earnings surprises accelerating
- Insider cluster BUY (cluster feed, 12d window): 5 insiders, $176,297,947
- 7 consecutive earnings beats
- avg surprise +10.9%
- EPS trending up
- Scope: OpenInsider Form 4 filings, last 90 days. Starts from a neutral 50 baseline; drivers below adjust it
- 4 C-suite buy(s) totaling $2,828,655 (+25 pts)
- Cluster buy: 8 distinct insiders bought (+20 pts)
- 5 buy(s) >= $500K (total $3,839,743) (+15 pts)
- 7 distinct insiders selling (-20 pts)
- 5 C-suite sell(s) (-20 pts)
- Whale 13F increase by Unknown fund (+10)
- Smart-money confirmation — moderate (+3)
The Archive — every Play, scored
So far: 32 of 85 resolved Plays positive, and 27 of 85 ahead of SPY over the same window. Each Play is scored at the longest horizon that has fully elapsed since it published — 30, 14, or 7 days — shown next to every result. Forward returns are measured automatically — nothing is edited after publication.
| DATE | PLAY | PERCENTILE | ENTRY | OUTCOME | VS SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | LLY | 99 | $1251.73 | pending | — |
| 2026-10-15 | RRC | 99 | $41.84 | pending | — |
| 2026-10-14 | SEIC | 99 | $105.53 | pending | — |
| 2026-10-13 | EWBC | 99 | $125.58 | pending | — |
| 2026-10-12 | GOOGL | 99 | $351.63 | pending | — |
| 2026-10-09 | RGA | 99 | $255.89 | +4.2% (7d) | +5.6% |
| 2026-10-08 | OXY | 99 | $58.21 | +4.2% (7d) | +4.9% |
| 2026-10-07 | MRVL | 98.8 | $287.20 | -14.5% (7d) | -13.3% |
| 2026-10-06 | MU | 99 | $1063.67 | -10.4% (7d) | -10.8% |
| 2026-10-05 | CRM | 96.6 | $234.61 | -0.4% (7d) | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | SNDK | 99 | $1787.58 | -27.3% (14d) | -30.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | NVDA | 96.8 | $228.29 | -4.8% (14d) | -6.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | WDC | 97.6 | $453.43 | -19.7% (14d) | -20.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | LLY | 99 | $1185.54 | -1.6% (14d) | -3.2% |
| 2026-09-28 | MU | 99 | $1082.01 | -8.6% (14d) | -9.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | GOOGL | 97.8 | $342.33 | +2.7% (14d) | +1.2% |
| 2026-09-24 | OXY | 98.1 | $57.37 | +5.1% (14d) | +4.3% |
| 2026-09-23 | SNDK | 99 | $1886.32 | -10.3% (14d) | -10.7% |
| 2026-09-22 | WDC | 99 | $448.15 | -8.3% (14d) | -9.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | PSX | 99 | $273.20 | -1.3% (14d) | -3.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | MU | 97 | $976.92 | +10.0% (14d) | +9.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | EG | 96 | $378.01 | -2.4% (14d) | -4.0% |
| 2026-09-16 | RRC | 98.5 | $41.88 | +3.2% (30d) | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-15 | GOOGL | 98.9 | $349.44 | -0.1% (30d) | -1.7% |
| 2026-09-14 | CVX | 98.9 | $214.06 | +3.8% (30d) | +3.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | HPE | 98.2 | $55.23 | +33.0% (30d) | +30.3% |
| 2026-09-10 | MU | 99 | $1027.70 | +0.1% (30d) | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-09 | WDC | 99 | $477.24 | -16.7% (30d) | -21.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | ZION | 99 | $69.34 | -9.6% (30d) | -10.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | DELL | 98.6 | $515.89 | +9.0% (30d) | +9.3% |
| 2026-09-03 | OXY | 98.2 | $60.91 | -4.6% (30d) | -5.3% |
| 2026-09-02 | MU | 99 | $933.34 | +15.2% (30d) | +14.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | WDC | 98 | $450.50 | +2.6% (30d) | +3.0% |
| 2026-08-31 | SNDK | 98.8 | $1484.30 | +17.2% (30d) | +18.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | MTDR | 98.3 | $56.72 | -9.1% (30d) | -9.3% |
| 2026-08-27 | KO | 98.4 | $90.09 | -2.5% (30d) | -3.2% |
| 2026-08-26 | CFG | 99 | $69.83 | -6.2% (30d) | -6.9% |
| 2026-08-25 | MU | 99 | $910.34 | +18.6% (30d) | +18.2% |
| 2026-08-24 | OXY | 99 | $61.29 | -6.4% (30d) | -6.7% |
| 2026-08-21 | SNDK | 98.1 | $1601.49 | +11.9% (30d) | +12.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | BMY | 98 | $67.62 | -6.8% (30d) | -5.8% |
| 2026-08-19 | BAC | 98.1 | $64.25 | -10.2% (30d) | -9.4% |
| 2026-08-18 | RGA | 99 | $247.50 | -0.7% (30d) | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-17 | MU | 99 | $971.98 | -4.7% (30d) | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-14 | LLY | 99 | $1209.09 | -7.8% (30d) | -6.0% |
| 2026-08-13 | ZION | 99 | $71.92 | -4.4% (30d) | -3.3% |
| 2026-08-12 | UAL | 99 | $126.18 | -12.9% (30d) | -12.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BAC | 99 | $63.88 | -2.0% (30d) | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-10 | BMY | 99 | $64.70 | -0.5% (30d) | +0.7% |
| 2026-08-07 | MU | 99 | $881.45 | +15.2% (30d) | +15.2% |
| 2026-08-06 | WDC | 99 | $519.22 | -10.0% (30d) | -9.3% |
| 2026-08-05 | UMBF | 99 | $148.25 | -3.0% (30d) | -3.2% |
| 2026-08-04 | AER | 99 | $153.68 | -4.7% (30d) | -6.8% |
| 2026-08-03 | BAC | 99 | $61.98 | +1.0% (30d) | -1.7% |
| 2026-07-31 | ALL | 99 | $265.43 | -1.8% (30d) | -5.3% |
| 2026-07-30 | EG | 93.3 | $393.37 | -3.9% (30d) | -9.4% |
| 2026-07-29 | PNC | 99 | $251.69 | -3.8% (30d) | -7.6% |
| 2026-07-28 | RNR | 99 | $329.18 | +0.4% (30d) | -4.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | CINF | 99 | $182.75 | -5.7% (30d) | -9.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | BAC | 99 | $61.30 | +1.6% (30d) | -1.9% |
The Play of the Day is the output of a quantitative scoring model, published for educational and informational purposes — it is not personalized investment advice, and Wall Street Analyst is not a registered investment advisor. Markets carry risk; past results don't guarantee future ones. Every decision is yours.