MTDR — the engine's Play of the Day, fully scored
On Friday, August 28, 2026, MTDR scored in the 98.3th percentile of Wall Street Analyst's 15-dimension scoring engine with a STRONG BUY signal, at $56.72 at publication, on a suggested horizon of 1–2 weeks. The full breakdown below is the engine's actual evidence, published the day of the call and graded in public afterward.
This grade was written by the market, not by us: the Play was timestamped at publication and scored automatically against its entry price. Winners and losers both stay up — the full record lives on the track record.
MTDR sits at the 98th percentile with the engine leaning on an exceptional insider signal — a 41 C-suite buy cluster totaling roughly $5M, 17 distinct insiders participating, and all recent trades on the buy side. That is reinforced by a 6-quarter beat streak averaging +15.1% surprise with accelerating and trending-up EPS, an A+ EPS-revision grade, and deep-value support at an 8.8 P/E with 82% gross margins. Analyst upside is wide, with a $71 target against a ~$53 reference implying +34%.
This is a catalyst-oriented setup with edge concentrated in a 1-2 week window, where the stock has recovered off late-July lows near $46 back toward the $56-58 area. The entry sits at $56.72 with earnings a comfortable 59 days out, leaving the window clear of event risk.
The thesis weakens if price loses the moving-average support that anchors the technical read and rolls back toward the mid-$50s breakdown zone, or if the insider-buy and revision momentum stalls against declining revenue (-4%), a D+ growth grade, and a macro regime that disfavors Energy.
The full case — all 15 dimensions
Every dimension the engine scored that day, with the actual evidence behind each number — including the ones that argue against the play. The twelve weighted dimensions come first; anything marked a supporting input is scored and shown, but reaches the composite through a capped confirmation bonus rather than a weighted share.
- Reddit mentions via ApeWisdom: 0 in 24h (vs 0 the day before; per-post sentiment n/a)
- StockTwits bullish (bull/bear ratio: 11.0)
- High social media volume (30 total messages)
- Ticker is trending on social media
- Analyst target $71 vs $53.18 (+34% implied)
- Strong beat streak (6 consecutive quarters)
- Positive revision momentum (+0.14)
- Large average earnings surprise (+15.1%)
- Stable positive EPS estimates
- MACD bullish crossover
- Price above key moving averages
- Quant Grade: B (68/100)
- Value: A
- Growth: D+
- Profitability: B+
- Momentum: C-
- Eps Revisions: A+
- Deep value P/E 8.8
- Revenue declining -4%
- Elite gross margin 82%
- 6Q consecutive earnings beats (avg 15.7% surprise)
- Earnings surprises accelerating
- Insider cluster BUY: 6 insiders, $10,331,048 in 3d
- Strong analyst buy consensus (81%)
- Very bullish put/call ratio (0.47)
- Unusual CALL activity (16 flags)
- Bearish sweep activity (1 put sweeps)
- Insider buying activity (10 buys)
- Held by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett), Bridgewater Associates (Dalio), Renaissance Technologies (Simons)
- High insider filing activity (5 Form 4s in 30d)
- Attractive P/E (8.8)
- Declining growth (-9%)
- 41 C-suite buy(s) totaling $4,980,656 (+25 pts)
- Cluster buy: 17 distinct insiders bought (+20 pts)
- 2 purchase(s) increased ownership by >20% (+10 pts)
- 1 buy(s) >= $500K (total $778,800) (+5 pts)
- All insider trades are buys (+5 pts)
- 6 consecutive earnings beats
- avg surprise +15.1%
- EPS trending up
A brief like this is generated from the engine's output every trading day. Today's Play is free — get it on the Play of the Day page or read how the 15 dimensions work.
The Play of the Day is the output of a quantitative scoring model, published for educational and informational purposes — it is not personalized investment advice, and Wall Street Analyst is not a registered investment advisor. Markets carry risk; past results don't guarantee future ones. Every decision is yours.