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Daily Brief · Wednesday, August 5, 2026

UMBF — the engine's Play of the Day, fully scored

On Wednesday, August 5, 2026, UMBF scored in the 99th percentile of Wall Street Analyst's 15-dimension scoring engine with a STRONG BUY signal, at $148.25 at publication, on a suggested horizon of 1–3 months. The full breakdown below is the engine's actual evidence, published the day of the call and graded in public afterward.

How the call aged — graded at 14d
-1.2%from entry over 14d
-1.3%vs the S&P 500, same window

This grade was written by the market, not by us: the Play was timestamped at publication and scored automatically against its entry price. Winners and losers both stay up — the full record lives on the track record.

STRONG BUY
SIGNAL
1–3 months
HOLD HORIZON
LOW
RISK
HIGH
MODEL CONFIDENCE
76
RAW COMPOSITE
$148.25
ENTRY PRICE
Why the engine flagged it

UMBF scores in the 99th percentile on a fundamentals-led setup, anchored by an 88.2 fundamental grade and an 86.1 quant factor with a Value/Growth/EPS-revisions profile stacking A-grades. The engine flags an attractive 12.6 P/E against 58% growth and a 0.33 PEG, backed by explosive revenue (+72%), 26% net margins, and eight consecutive EPS beats averaging near +14% surprise. Momentum reinforces the case at 84.3, with price sitting in the 96th percentile near its 52-week high after a +13.1% three-month run.

The play — 1–3 months

This is a quality, fundamentals-led setup with a 1-3 month horizon at an entry near 148.25, well clear of the next earnings date on October 27. Give the thesis time to be recognized rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

What breaks the thesis

A break in the earnings-beat streak or negative estimate revisions would undercut the fundamental and quant-factor case, and continued heavy insider selling — 16 distinct sellers and 58 C-suite sells flagged — would erode the smart-money picture. A momentum reversal below key moving averages, away from the 52-week high, would also invalidate the entry.

The full case — all 15 dimensions

Every dimension the engine scored that day, with the actual evidence behind each number — including the ones that argue against the play. The twelve weighted dimensions come first; anything marked a supporting input is scored and shown, but reaches the composite through a capped confirmation bonus rather than a weighted share.

Social92
  • Reddit mentions via ApeWisdom: 0 in 24h (vs 0 the day before; per-post sentiment n/a)
  • StockTwits bullish (bull/bear ratio: 2.0)
  • High social media volume (30 total messages)
  • Ticker is trending on social media
Fundamentals88
  • Attractive P/E (12.6)
  • PEG undervalued (0.33)
  • Strong growth (58%)
  • Excellent margins (25.9%)
Quant Factor86
  • Quant Grade: A (86/100)
  • Value: A-
  • Growth: A+
  • Profitability: B-
  • Momentum: A-
  • Eps Revisions: A+
  • Revenue +72% (explosive)
  • Earnings +45%
  • High net margin 26%
Momentum84
  • Near 52-week high (96th percentile)
  • Strong 3-month momentum (+13.1%)
Earnings Quality82
  • Strong beat streak (7 consecutive quarters)
  • Positive revision momentum (+0.34)
  • Large average earnings surprise (+13.7%)
  • Stable positive EPS estimates
Risk-Adjusted72
Technical70
  • MACD bullish crossover
  • Price above key moving averages
Sentiment69
  • Strong analyst buy consensus (84%)
Analyst Upside61
  • Analyst target $164 vs $148.33 (+11% implied)
Smart Money55
  • Insider selling activity (6 sells)
  • Held by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett), Bridgewater Associates (Dalio), Renaissance Technologies (Simons)
  • High insider filing activity (6 Form 4s in 30d)
Earnings Intel53
  • 7Q consecutive earnings beats (avg 13.8% surprise)
  • Earnings surprises accelerating
  • Insider cluster BUY: 5 insiders, $23,248,328 in 1d
Options Flow50
  • Very bullish put/call ratio (0.00)
Earnings MomentumSupporting input · not weighted100
  • Strong: 8 consecutive EPS beats
  • Large avg earnings surprise: +13.9%
  • Strong EPS growth trend: +32.2%
Congress/FundsSupporting input · not weighted50
Insider DepthSupporting input · not weighted15
  • 2 insiders bought (+5 pts)
  • 16 distinct insiders selling (-20 pts)
  • 58 C-suite sell(s) (-20 pts)

A brief like this is generated from the engine's output every trading day. Today's Play is free — get it on the Play of the Day page or read how the 15 dimensions work.

AER · 2026-08-04WDC · 2026-08-06All briefs

The Play of the Day is the output of a quantitative scoring model, published for educational and informational purposes — it is not personalized investment advice, and Wall Street Analyst is not a registered investment advisor. Markets carry risk; past results don't guarantee future ones. Every decision is yours.